Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 20.272541 23.092238 26.129701 29.641013 33.584175 37.871433 42.881727
2024-12-29 16.126031 19.951614 24.388057 29.897074 36.537522 44.265802 53.923174
2025-01-05 14.336660 18.692520 23.984425 30.856357 39.510748 50.012058 63.680313
2025-01-12 12.416616 16.976224 22.752909 30.561029 40.785315 53.657393 71.021671
2025-01-19 10.456162 14.920238 20.792665 29.018882 40.169174 54.670298 74.855101
2025-01-26 9.656331 14.301959 20.616121 29.738357 42.475579 59.506627 83.853814
2025-02-02 9.005193 13.802713 20.521617 30.505990 44.827966 64.464685 93.219615
2025-02-09 8.167842 12.941970 19.824369 30.332565 45.799983 67.520607 100.061276
2025-02-16 7.377053 12.067290 19.018440 29.909021 46.336426 69.932261 106.049784
2025-02-23 6.832188 11.512809 18.630415 30.051399 47.672046 73.512605 113.851744
2025-03-02 6.398292 11.089500 18.398805 30.394378 49.297707 77.562729 122.503478
2025-03-09 5.958440 10.614429 18.042390 30.501409 50.540603 81.068877 130.469856
2025-03-16 5.470482 10.027287 17.477482 30.258648 51.253488 83.856781 137.574656
2025-03-23 5.128648 9.659013 17.240054 30.525397 52.785052 87.979596 146.952047
2025-03-30 4.949377 9.556183 17.430836 31.501296 55.505068 94.081061 159.712102
2025-04-06 4.565929 9.052128 16.895556 31.200922 56.073321 96.736006 167.031272
2025-04-13 4.018246 8.195945 15.678677 29.628680 54.378393 95.582707 168.028703
2025-04-20 3.869761 8.078956 15.768445 30.362180 56.682334 101.150766 180.410543
2025-04-27 3.738069 7.982214 15.885135 31.144647 59.103593 107.012819 193.529571
2025-05-04 3.486712 7.627038 15.495113 30.967876 59.795523 109.935787 201.738089
2025-05-11 3.224354 7.226402 14.988787 30.536131 59.990616 111.988367 208.505180
2025-05-18 3.052467 6.997337 14.795356 30.681267 61.244594 115.943120 218.759064
2025-05-25 2.916116 6.831305 14.712673 31.030883 62.890705 120.656520 230.543437